Pavia v Varesina prediction · Serie D - Girone D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Pavia 2–2 Varesina PAVIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pavia win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pavia win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Pavia v Varesina
2′Little has changed for our model: Pavia 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–32
4′Little has changed for our model: Pavia 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Pavia 0–1 Varesina
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Pavia 1–1 Varesina
23′21′ and it is 1–1: Pavia have scored. 1–1 · 36–34–30
27′21′ and it is 1–1: Pavia have scored. 1–1 · 36–35–29
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pavia win 33%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pavia win 33%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pavia win 33%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Pavia win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Pavia 1–1 Varesina
46′SECOND HALF Pavia 1–1 Varesina
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Pavia 1–2 Varesina
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Pavia 2–2 Varesina
FTFULL TIME Pavia 2–2 Varesina
FTPavia 2–2 Varesina · Pavia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pavia win39%

Draw29%

Varesina win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pavia

Varesina

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
14	Pavia	5	−1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pavia winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Pavia a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pavia win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Varesina win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Pavia or draw	69%	–	–
Pavia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Varesina clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.2 10.3 5.8 2.1 1 11.8 13.4 6.8 2.5 2 7.5 7.8 4.1 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pavia down, Varesina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pavia at home: 0.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Varesina away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Pavia, 1.07 for Varesina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

PAVIA

DDDDL0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

VARESINA

WDLLLD3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0