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Pavia v USD Casatese
PaviaUSD CasateseSerie D - Girone D · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Pavia just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Pavia 36%, draw 29%, USD Casatese 35%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Pavia win36%USD Casatese win35%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30
RoundGroup D · matchday 9
Match timeline
All events
PaviaMINUSD CasateseEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Pavia
USD Casatese
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | +1 | 8 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Pavia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia win | 36% | 35% | +1 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| USD Casatese win | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 46% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Pavia or draw | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Pavia clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| USD Casatese clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept
PAVIA
USD CASATESE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 8 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellanzese | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 8 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Città di Varese | 8 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Solbiatese | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Correggese | 8 | −5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Crema | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 8 | −5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Oltrepò | 8 | −12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 8 | −14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Pontedera | 8 | −16 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.