Oltrepò v Cittadella Vis Modena prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Oltrepò 0–0 Cittadella Vis Modena CITTADELLA VIS MODENA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cittadella Vis Modena win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cittadella Vis Modena win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cittadella Vis Modena was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 29–30–42
1′KICK-OFF Oltrepò v Cittadella Vis Modena
FTFULL TIME Oltrepò 0–0 Cittadella Vis Modena
FTOltrepò 0–0 Cittadella Vis Modena · Cittadella Vis Modena win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cittadella Vis Modena are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oltrepò 29%, draw 30%, Cittadella Vis Modena 42%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Oltrepò v Cittadella Vis ModenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Oltrepò win29%

Draw30%

Cittadella Vis Modena win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oltrepò

Cittadella Vis Modena

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cittadella vis modena winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Cittadella Vis Modena a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oltrepò v Cittadella Vis Modena~~0.98 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~17 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oltrepò win	29%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Cittadella Vis Modena win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Oltrepò or draw	58%	–	–
Oltrepò clean sheet	29%	–	–
Cittadella Vis Modena clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.8 12.9 8.3 3.5 1 10.1 13.3 7.9 3.4 2 5.2 6.3 3.9 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oltrepò down, Cittadella Vis Modena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Oltrepò at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Cittadella Vis Modena away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Oltrepò, 1.25 for Cittadella Vis Modena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 6 Sept

OLTREPÒ

LWLLLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 0–2

CITTADELLA VIS MODENA

WDWLWL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Lentigione	8	+5	17
3	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Solbiatese	7	−4	7
13	Varesina	7	−3	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3