Lentigione v Pontedera prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Lentigione 2–0 Pontedera LENTIGIONE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lentigione win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lentigione win at 68%.
1′KICK-OFF Lentigione v Pontedera
3′Much as we predicted: Lentigione was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–19–12
4′Much as we predicted: Lentigione was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–12
41′We said Lentigione at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–31–13
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 55% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 62% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 55% now
43′We said Lentigione at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–13
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 55% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 62% now
45′HALF-TIME Lentigione 0–0 Pontedera
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lentigione win: 68% at kick-off, 54% now
46′SECOND HALF Lentigione 0–0 Pontedera
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Lentigione 1–0 Pontedera
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lentigione 2–0 Pontedera
FTFULL TIME Lentigione 2–0 Pontedera
FTLentigione 2–0 Pontedera · Lentigione win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lentigione win68%

Draw20%

Pontedera win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lentigione

Pontedera

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lentigione winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Lentigione a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lentigione win	68%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Pontedera win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Lentigione or draw	88%	–	–
Lentigione clean sheet	46%	–	–
Pontedera clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.0%

0123450 6.0 3.8 1 11.0 9.2 3.5 2 12.0 9.2 3.6 3 8.7 6.6 2.6 4 4.8 3.7 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Lentigione down, Pontedera across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Lentigione at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pontedera away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Lentigione, 0.78 for Pontedera. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

LENTIGIONE

WWWLDW3–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

PONTEDERA

LLLLL1–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0