Crema v Pontedera prediction · Serie D - Girone D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Crema 4–1 Pontedera CREMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crema win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crema win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Crema 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Crema v Pontedera
45′HALF-TIME Crema 0–0 Pontedera
46′SECOND HALF Crema 0–0 Pontedera
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Crema win 35%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Crema win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
49′A goal for Crema on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Crema 2–0 Pontedera
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Crema win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Crema win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 5%)
59′We said Crema at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
68′A goal for Pontedera on 68′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Crema 4–1 Pontedera
69′We said Crema at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
69′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Crema 4–1 Pontedera
FTCrema 4–1 Pontedera · Crema win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crema are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crema 44%, draw 26%, Pontedera 30%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Crema v PontederaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Crema win44%

Draw26%

Pontedera win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crema

Pontedera

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

Last match: 14 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Crema	7	−10	5
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crema winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:49 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Crema a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crema v Pontedera~~1.53 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~15 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crema win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crema win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Pontedera win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Crema or draw	70%	–	–
Crema clean sheet	30%	–	–
Pontedera clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 7.4 4.8 2.0 1 9.4 12.1 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crema down, Pontedera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Crema at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pontedera away: 0.75 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Crema, 1.22 for Pontedera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept

CREMA

LLLLWD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–0

PONTEDERA

LLLLLW2–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Lentigione	8	+5	17
3	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Solbiatese	7	−4	7
13	Varesina	7	−3	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3