Correggese v Castellanzese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Correggese 0–2 Castellanzese CASTELLANZESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Castellanzese win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Castellanzese win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Castellanzese was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
1′KICK-OFF Correggese v Castellanzese
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Castellanzese win 33%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Castellanzese win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
57′We said Castellanzese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 23–51–25
59′We said Castellanzese at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
FTFULL TIME Correggese 0–2 Castellanzese
FTCorreggese 0–2 Castellanzese · Castellanzese win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Castellanzese just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Correggese 33%, draw 29%, Castellanzese 37%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Correggese v CastellanzeseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Correggese win33%

Draw29%

Castellanzese win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Correggese

Castellanzese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
8	Correggese	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellanzese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Castellanzese a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Correggese v Castellanzese~~1.11 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Correggese win	33%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Castellanzese win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Correggese or draw	63%	–	–
Correggese clean sheet	31%	–	–
Castellanzese clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.1 11.5 7.1 2.9 1 10.7 13.4 7.6 3.1 2 6.2 7.1 4.2 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Correggese down, Castellanzese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Correggese at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Castellanzese away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Correggese, 1.18 for Castellanzese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept

CORREGGESE

DWLWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

CASTELLANZESE

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Lentigione	8	+5	17
3	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Solbiatese	7	−4	7
13	Varesina	7	−3	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3