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Coriano v Pontedera
CorianoPontederaSerie D - Girone D · WED 14 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Coriano win at 46%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Coriano was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
- 2′KICK-OFF Coriano v Pontedera
- 11′🟥 RED CARD · 11' Coriano
- 12′A red card for Coriano on 11′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 44–30–26
- 21′A goal for Pontedera on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–25–57
- 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Coriano 0–1 Pontedera
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Coriano win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
- 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Pontedera win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Coriano win 17%)
- 22′We said Coriano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–25–58
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Coriano win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
- 32′We said Coriano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
- 45′HALF-TIME Coriano 0–1 Pontedera
- 46′SECOND HALF Coriano 0–1 Pontedera
- 49′We said Coriano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 57′57′ and it is 0–2: Pontedera have scored. 0–2 · 1–6–93
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Coriano 0–2 Pontedera
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Coriano win: 46% at kick-off, 1% now
- 58′We said Coriano at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Coriano 1–2 Pontedera
- 68′Coriano find the net on 67′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
- 69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
- FTFULL TIME Coriano 1–2 Pontedera
- FTCoriano 1–2 Pontedera · Coriano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
Coriano win46%Pontedera win26%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00
Match timeline
All events
CorianoMINPontederaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Coriano
Pontedera
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Coriano | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Coriano a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coriano win | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Pontedera win | 26% | 25% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Coriano or draw | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Coriano clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Pontedera clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in Serie D - Girone D since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D
CORIANO
PONTEDERA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 7 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 7 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Lentigione | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 7 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 7 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 |  USD Casatese | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Correggese | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Città di Varese | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 |  Pavia | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Sant'Angelo | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Varesina | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Solbiatese | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Coriano | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 |  Crema | 7 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 |  Arconatese | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Oltrepò | 7 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 6 | -14 | 0 |
The competition's standings.