Cittadella Vis Modena v USD Casatese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Cittadella Vis Modena 0–1 USD Casatese CITTADELLA VIS MODENA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cittadella Vis Modena win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cittadella Vis Modena win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cittadella Vis Modena 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Cittadella Vis Modena v USD Casatese
3′Little has changed for our model: Cittadella Vis Modena 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
42′Cittadella Vis Modena are down to ten from 41′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 35–41–24
42′🟥 RED CARD · 41' Cittadella Vis Modena
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Cittadella Vis Modena win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Cittadella Vis Modena 0–0 USD Casatese
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Cittadella Vis Modena win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Cittadella Vis Modena 0–0 USD Casatese
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Cittadella Vis Modena 0–1 USD Casatese
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Cittadella Vis Modena 0–2 USD Casatese
FTFULL TIME Cittadella Vis Modena 0–1 USD Casatese
FTCittadella Vis Modena 0–1 USD Casatese · Cittadella Vis Modena win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cittadella Vis Modena win44%

Draw29%

USD Casatese win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cittadella Vis Modena

USD Casatese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cittadella vis modena winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Cittadella Vis Modena a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cittadella Vis Modena win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
USD Casatese win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Cittadella Vis Modena or draw	72%	–	–
Cittadella Vis Modena clean sheet	37%	–	–
USD Casatese clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 9.1 4.9 1 12.2 13.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.5 8.3 4.2 3 3.9 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cittadella Vis Modena down, USD Casatese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cittadella Vis Modena at home: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). USD Casatese away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Cittadella Vis Modena, 1.01 for USD Casatese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

CITTADELLA VIS MODENA

LWDWLW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

USD CASATESE

WDLWWL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0