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Cittadella Vis Modena v Pistoiese
Cittadella Vis ModenaPistoieseSerie D - Girone D · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Pistoiese are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cittadella Vis Modena 21%, draw 31%, Pistoiese 48%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 37%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Cittadella Vis Modena win21%Pistoiese win48%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30
RoundGroup D · matchday 9
Match timeline
All events
Cittadella Vis ModenaMINPistoieseEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cittadella Vis Modena
Pistoiese
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | +2 | 11 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Pistoiese a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella Vis Modena win | 21% | 16% | +5 |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | +5 |
| Pistoiese win | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 43% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% | 68% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 23% | −9 |
| Cittadella Vis Modena or draw | 52% | 42% | +10 |
| Cittadella Vis Modena clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Pistoiese clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept
CITTADELLA VIS MODENA
PISTOIESE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 8 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Castellanzese | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 8 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  USD Casatese | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Città di Varese | 8 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Solbiatese | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Correggese | 8 | −5 | 10 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Crema | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 8 | −5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Oltrepò | 8 | −12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 8 | −14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Pontedera | 8 | −16 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.