Città di Varese v Solbiatese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Città di VareseDrawSolbiatese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Città di Varese 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Città di Varese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Città di Varese 47%, draw 27%, Solbiatese 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Città di Varese v SolbiateseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Città di Varese win47%

Draw27%

Solbiatese win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Città di Varese

Solbiatese

7Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

Last match: 21 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Città di Varese	8	+6	12
10	Solbiatese	8	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · città di varese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Città di Varese a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Città di Varese v Solbiatese~~1.48 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Città di Varese win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Città di Varese win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Solbiatese win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Città di Varese or draw	74%	–	–
Città di Varese clean sheet	36%	–	–
Solbiatese clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.0 7.9 4.4 1 11.3 12.6 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 8.8 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Città di Varese down, Solbiatese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,751 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Città di Varese at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Solbiatese away: 0.50 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Città di Varese, 1.05 for Solbiatese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept

CITTÀ DI VARESE

DWDLWW0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 5–1

SOLBIATESE

DLWDDW0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	8	+18	24
2	Pro Patria	8	+8	19
3	Castellanzese	8	+11	18
4	Lentigione	8	+5	17
5	Pro Sesto	8	+12	15
6	USD Casatese	8	+1	13
7	Città di Varese	8	+6	12
8	Cittadella Vis Modena	8	+2	11
9	Sant'Angelo	8	+1	11
10	Solbiatese	8	−3	10
11	Correggese	8	−5	10
12	Pavia	8	+1	8
13	Crema	8	−7	8
14	Varesina	8	−3	7
15	Coriano	8	−5	5
16	Oltrepò	8	−12	4
17	Arconatese	8	−14	3
18	Pontedera	8	−16	3