Home › Football › Serie D - Girone D › Castellanzese v Varesina
Back
Castellanzese v Varesina
CastellanzeseVaresinaSerie D - Girone D · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Castellanzese are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Castellanzese 52%, draw 26%, Varesina 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Castellanzese win52%Varesina win23%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30
RoundGroup D · matchday 9
Match timeline
All events
CastellanzeseMINVaresinaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Castellanzese
Varesina
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone D
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | −3 | 7 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Castellanzese a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese win | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Varesina win | 23% | 18% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Castellanzese or draw | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Castellanzese clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Varesina clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 16 Sept
CASTELLANZESE
VARESINA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 8 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Pro Sesto | 8 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  USD Casatese | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Città di Varese | 8 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Solbiatese | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Correggese | 8 | −5 | 10 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Crema | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 8 | −5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Oltrepò | 8 | −12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 8 | −14 | 3 |
| 18 |  Pontedera | 8 | −16 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.