Castellanzese v Arconatese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Castellanzese 1–0 Arconatese CASTELLANZESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Castellanzese win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Castellanzese win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Castellanzese was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF Castellanzese v Arconatese
3′Much as we predicted: Castellanzese was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 52% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 52% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 52% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
45′HALF-TIME Castellanzese 0–0 Arconatese
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Castellanzese win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
46′SECOND HALF Castellanzese 0–0 Arconatese
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Castellanzese 1–0 Arconatese
FTFULL TIME Castellanzese 1–0 Arconatese
FTCastellanzese 1–0 Arconatese · Castellanzese win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Castellanzese win57%

Draw24%

Arconatese win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Castellanzese

Arconatese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castellanzese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Castellanzese a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castellanzese win	57%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Arconatese win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Castellanzese or draw	80%	–	–
Castellanzese clean sheet	38%	–	–
Arconatese clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.9 5.6 3.0 1 10.6 11.0 5.2 2 9.9 9.4 4.6 3 6.1 5.8 2.8 4 2.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castellanzese down, Arconatese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Castellanzese at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Arconatese away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Castellanzese, 0.98 for Arconatese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D

CASTELLANZESE

WLLWWW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–1

ARCONATESE

LDLLDD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	6	+16	18
2	Pro Sesto	6	+12	13
3	Pro Patria	6	+6	13
4	Lentigione	6	+3	13
5	Castellanzese	6	+8	12
6	Correggese	6	+1	11
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	6	+3	10
8	USD Casatese	6	+1	10
9	Città di Varese	6	0	6
10	Sant'Angelo	6	−3	6
11	Varesina	6	−3	5
12	Solbiatese	5	−4	5
13	Coriano	4	−1	4
14	Pavia	5	−1	4
15	Crema	6	−10	4
16	Oltrepò	5	−7	3
17	Arconatese	6	−9	3
18	Pontedera	5	−12	0