Arconatese v Città di Varese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Arconatese 1–5 Città di Varese CITTÀ DI VARESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Città di Varese win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Città di Varese win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Città di Varese 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Arconatese v Città di Varese
17′A goal for Città di Varese on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arconatese 0–1 Città di Varese
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Città di Varese win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
18′We said Città di Varese at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
20′Città di Varese score on 20′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
20′We said Città di Varese at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Arconatese 0–2 Città di Varese
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Città di Varese win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
21′We said Città di Varese at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Città di Varese win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
36′Città di Varese find the net on 35′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
36′We said Città di Varese at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
36′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–98
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Arconatese 0–3 Città di Varese
45′HALF-TIME Arconatese 0–3 Città di Varese
46′SECOND HALF Arconatese 0–3 Città di Varese
56′A goal for Città di Varese on 56′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Arconatese 0–4 Città di Varese
57′We said Città di Varese at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
71′Arconatese score on 70′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
71′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Arconatese 1–4 Città di Varese
84′Città di Varese find the net on 84′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Arconatese 1–5 Città di Varese
85′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
93′A goal for Città di Varese on 90′ — 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Arconatese 1–6 Città di Varese
94′7 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–6 · 0–0–100
95′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+5' Città di Varese
FTFULL TIME Arconatese 1–5 Città di Varese
FTArconatese 1–5 Città di Varese · Città di Varese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Città di Varese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arconatese 31%, draw 28%, Città di Varese 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Arconatese v Città di VareseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arconatese win31%

Draw28%

Città di Varese win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup D · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arconatese

Città di Varese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone D

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · città di varese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Città di Varese a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arconatese v Città di Varese~~1.13 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~16 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arconatese win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Città di Varese win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Arconatese or draw	59%	–	–
Arconatese clean sheet	27%	–	–
Città di Varese clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.5 10.9 7.5 3.4 1 9.2 13.0 8.2 3.7 2 5.5 7.0 4.6 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arconatese down, Città di Varese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Serie D - Girone D matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone D matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arconatese at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Città di Varese away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Arconatese, 1.33 for Città di Varese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARC 1–0 CIT · CIT 1–3 ARC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone D this season · since 12 Sept

ARCONATESE

DLLDDL1–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

CITTÀ DI VARESE

LDWDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pistoiese	7	+17	21
2	Lentigione	8	+5	17
3	Pro Patria	7	+7	16
4	Castellanzese	7	+9	15
5	Pro Sesto	7	+12	14
6	USD Casatese	7	+2	13
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	7	+2	10
8	Correggese	7	−3	10
9	Città di Varese	7	+2	9
10	Pavia	7	+2	8
11	Sant'Angelo	7	−1	8
12	Solbiatese	7	−4	7
13	Varesina	7	−3	6
14	Coriano	6	−2	5
15	Crema	7	−10	5
16	Arconatese	7	−10	3
17	Oltrepò	7	−12	3
18	Pontedera	7	−13	3