Triestina v Mestre prediction · Serie D - Girone C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TriestinaDrawMestre

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Mestre 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mestre just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Triestina 33%, draw 31%, Mestre 36%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Triestina v MestreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Triestina win33%

Draw31%

Mestre win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 9

VenueStadio Nereo Rocco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Triestina

Mestre

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Mestre	8	0	10
13	Triestina	8	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mestre winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Mestre a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Triestina v Mestre~~1.06 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~13 v 9

~~The market · Mestre win~~33% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mestre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Triestina win	33%	37%	−4
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Mestre win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Triestina or draw	64%	67%	−3
Triestina clean sheet	33%	–	–
Mestre clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.7 11.7 7.0 2.7 1 11.1 14.0 7.2 2.8 2 6.4 6.9 3.8 3 2.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Triestina down, Mestre across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Triestina at home: 1.25 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Mestre away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Triestina, 1.11 for Mestre. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept

TRIESTINA

LDLWLW1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

MESTRE

DWDDLL0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	8	+12	18
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
3	Clodiense	8	+3	16
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
6	Campodarsego	8	+2	13
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12
8	LME	8	−2	11
9	Mestre	8	0	10
10	Este	8	0	10
11	Conegliano	8	−4	10
12	Altavilla	8	+6	9
13	Triestina	8	−2	9
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9
15	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
17	Schio	8	−3	7
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3