Triestina v Conegliano prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Triestina 1–0 Conegliano CONEGLIANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Conegliano win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Conegliano win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Conegliano was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 32–32–36
1′KICK-OFF Triestina v Conegliano
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Conegliano win 33%)
45′Triestina score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
45′We said Conegliano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 71–22–7
45′40′: C. Lupi on the scoresheet for Triestina, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Triestina 1–0 Conegliano
45′HALF-TIME Triestina 1–0 Conegliano
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Conegliano win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Triestina win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
46′SECOND HALF Triestina 1–0 Conegliano
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Conegliano win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
59′We said Conegliano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
FTFULL TIME Triestina 1–0 Conegliano
FTTriestina 1–0 Conegliano · Conegliano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Conegliano just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Triestina 32%, draw 31%, Conegliano 36%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Triestina v ConeglianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Triestina win32%

Draw31%

Conegliano win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

VenueStadio Nereo Rocco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Triestina

Conegliano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
15	Triestina	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · conegliano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Conegliano a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Triestina v Conegliano~~1.03 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Triestina win	32%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Conegliano win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Triestina or draw	64%	–	–
Triestina clean sheet	33%	–	–
Conegliano clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.0 12.0 7.3 2.8 1 11.0 14.1 7.3 2.8 2 6.2 6.8 3.8 3 2.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Triestina down, Conegliano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Triestina at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Conegliano away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Triestina, 1.12 for Conegliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept

TRIESTINA

DLDLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

CONEGLIANO

DWWLLW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3