Schio v Campodarsego prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Schio 4–1 Campodarsego CAMPODARSEGO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Campodarsego win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Campodarsego win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Campodarsego was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 26–30–44
1′KICK-OFF Schio v Campodarsego
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Campodarsego win 36%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Campodarsego win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′Schio find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
45′We said Campodarsego at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Schio 2–0 Campodarsego
45′HALF-TIME Schio 2–0 Campodarsego
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Schio 2–0 Campodarsego
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Campodarsego win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Schio win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 8%)
46′SECOND HALF Schio 2–0 Campodarsego
49′We said Campodarsego at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 22–46–32 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
64′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
93′Campodarsego find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Schio 4–1 Campodarsego
FTFULL TIME Schio 4–1 Campodarsego
FTSchio 4–1 Campodarsego · Campodarsego win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Campodarsego are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schio 26%, draw 30%, Campodarsego 44%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Schio v CampodarsegoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Schio win26%

Draw30%

Campodarsego win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schio

Campodarsego

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
17	Schio	7	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · campodarsego winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Campodarsego a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schio v Campodarsego~~0.95 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~17 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schio win	26%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Campodarsego win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Schio or draw	56%	–	–
Schio clean sheet	28%	–	–
Campodarsego clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.8 12.7 8.9 4.0 1 9.0 13.6 8.2 3.7 2 4.8 6.0 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schio down, Campodarsego across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Schio at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Campodarsego away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Schio, 1.32 for Campodarsego. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

SCHIO

DDDLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

CAMPODARSEGO

LWWLDW1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3