Sandona v Luparense prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Sandona 0–0 Luparense LUPARENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Luparense win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Luparense win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Luparense 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
1′KICK-OFF Sandona v Luparense
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Luparense win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Sandona 0–0 Luparense
46′SECOND HALF Sandona 0–0 Luparense
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Luparense win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
57′We said Luparense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
68′We said Luparense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Luparense win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
75′We said Luparense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
82′We said Luparense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Luparense win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
89′We said Luparense at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Sandona 0–0 Luparense
FTSandona 0–0 Luparense · Luparense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Luparense just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandona 33%, draw 31%, Luparense 36%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sandona v LuparenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sandona win33%

Draw31%

Luparense win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandona

Luparense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luparense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Luparense a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sandona v Luparense~~1.04 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandona win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Luparense win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Sandona or draw	64%	–	–
Sandona clean sheet	33%	–	–
Luparense clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.9 11.8 7.1 2.8 1 11.1 14.0 7.2 2.8 2 6.4 6.8 3.8 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandona down, Luparense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sandona at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Luparense away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Sandona, 1.12 for Luparense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

SANDONA

DWLDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

LUPARENSE

DWDWWW1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3