Mestre v Cjarlins Muzane prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Mestre 0–2 Cjarlins Muzane MESTRE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mestre win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mestre win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mestre 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–32
1′KICK-OFF Mestre v Cjarlins Muzane
35′A goal for Cjarlins Muzane on 35′. 0–0 · 33–38–28
35′We said Mestre at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–67
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–67
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Mestre win 33%)
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mestre 0–1 Cjarlins Muzane
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Mestre win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Cjarlins Muzane win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
41′We said Mestre at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mestre win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Mestre 0–1 Cjarlins Muzane
46′SECOND HALF Mestre 0–1 Cjarlins Muzane
62′We said Mestre at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
71′Cjarlins Muzane score on 71′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Mestre 0–2 Cjarlins Muzane
FTFULL TIME Mestre 0–2 Cjarlins Muzane
FTMestre 0–2 Cjarlins Muzane · Mestre win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mestre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mestre 39%, draw 30%, Cjarlins Muzane 32%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mestre v Cjarlins MuzaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mestre win39%

Draw30%

Cjarlins Muzane win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mestre

Cjarlins Muzane

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
8	Mestre	7	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mestre winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Mestre a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mestre v Cjarlins Muzane~~1.25 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mestre win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Cjarlins Muzane win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Mestre or draw	68%	–	–
Mestre clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cjarlins Muzane clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.7 9.5 5.8 2.2 1 10.8 13.8 7.1 2.7 2 7.4 8.0 4.4 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mestre down, Cjarlins Muzane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mestre at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cjarlins Muzane away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Mestre, 1.11 for Cjarlins Muzane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MES 1–1 CJA · CJA 1–0 MES · MES 1–1 CJA · CJA 2–3 MES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

MESTRE

DDWDDL1–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

CJARLINS MUZANE

WLWWWL4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3