Luparense v Este prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Luparense 1–0 Este LUPARENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Luparense win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Luparense win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Luparense v Este
2′Much as we predicted: Luparense was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–28
4′Much as we predicted: Luparense was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Luparense win 35%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Luparense win 35%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Luparense win 35%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Luparense win 35%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' Luparense 1–0 Este
45′HALF-TIME Luparense 1–0 Este
46′SECOND HALF Luparense 1–0 Este
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' Luparense 1–0 Este
FTFULL TIME Luparense 1–0 Este
FTLuparense 1–0 Este · Luparense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Luparense win42%

Draw31%

Este win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Luparense

Este

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
10	Este	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luparense winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Luparense a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luparense win	42%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Este win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Luparense or draw	73%	–	–
Luparense clean sheet	40%	–	–
Este clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.3 9.8 5.0 1 13.3 14.0 5.9 2 8.7 7.8 3.6 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Luparense down, Este across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luparense at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Este away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Luparense, 0.92 for Este. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 2–0 LUP · LUP 1–1 EST · LUP 2–0 EST · EST 1–1 LUP

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

LUPARENSE

WDWDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

ESTE

WLLLDW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3