LME v Triestina prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

LME 2–1 Triestina LME WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LME win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LME win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF LME v Triestina
2′Little has changed for our model: LME 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
4′Little has changed for our model: LME 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
29′⚽ GOAL · 15' LME 1–1 Triestina
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' LME 1–1 Triestina
38′Triestina find the net on 28′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–38–28
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' LME 2–1 Triestina
45′HALF-TIME LME 2–1 Triestina
46′SECOND HALF LME 2–1 Triestina
90′⚽ GOAL · 15' LME 2–1 Triestina
90′⚽ GOAL · 28' LME 2–1 Triestina
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' LME 2–1 Triestina
FTFULL TIME LME 2–1 Triestina
FTLME 2–1 Triestina · LME win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

LME win39%

Draw30%

Triestina win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

LME

Triestina

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	LME	6	−2	8
14	Triestina	6	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lme winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market–

Us39%

We make LME a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LME win	39%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Triestina win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
LME or draw	69%	–	–
LME clean sheet	33%	–	–
Triestina clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.5 9.1 5.7 2.2 1 10.6 13.7 7.0 2.7 2 7.4 8.0 4.5 3 3.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LME down, Triestina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

LME at home: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Triestina away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for LME, 1.12 for Triestina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

LME

WDDLWL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

TRIESTINA

DDLDLW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3