LME v Legnago Salus prediction · Serie D - Girone C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LMEDrawLegnago Salus

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Legnago Salus 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Legnago Salus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LME 25%, draw 26%, Legnago Salus 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on LME v Legnago SalusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

LME win25%

Draw26%

Legnago Salus win49%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LME

Legnago Salus

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
8	LME	8	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · legnago salus winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Legnago Salus a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LME v Legnago Salus~~1.14 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LME win	25%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Legnago Salus win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
LME or draw	51%	–	–
LME clean sheet	19%	–	–
Legnago Salus clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 9.2 8.3 4.8 2.1 1 6.0 11.9 9.2 5.2 2.3 2 3.9 6.3 5.2 3.0 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LME down, Legnago Salus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

LME at home: 0.75 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Legnago Salus away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for LME, 1.70 for Legnago Salus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept

LME

DLWLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

LEGNAGO SALUS

WLWLWW3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	8	+12	18
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
3	Clodiense	8	+3	16
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
6	Campodarsego	8	+2	13
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12
8	LME	8	−2	11
9	Mestre	8	0	10
10	Este	8	0	10
11	Conegliano	8	−4	10
12	Altavilla	8	+6	9
13	Triestina	8	−2	9
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9
15	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
17	Schio	8	−3	7
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3