Legnago Salus v FC Obermais prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Legnago Salus 3–1 FC Obermais LEGNAGO SALUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Legnago Salus win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.245

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Legnago Salus win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Legnago Salus was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Legnago Salus v FC Obermais
3′Legnago Salus find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–7
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Legnago Salus 1–0 FC Obermais
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Legnago Salus win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
4′We published Legnago Salus at 60%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–6
44′A goal for FC Obermais on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 48–34–19
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Legnago Salus 1–1 FC Obermais
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Legnago Salus win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
45′We said Legnago Salus at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–34–19
45′HALF-TIME Legnago Salus 1–1 FC Obermais
46′SECOND HALF Legnago Salus 1–1 FC Obermais
51′We said Legnago Salus at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–38–18
53′Legnago Salus score on 53′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Legnago Salus 2–1 FC Obermais
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Legnago Salus win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
65′Legnago Salus find the net on 64′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′We published Legnago Salus at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Legnago Salus 3–1 FC Obermais
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Legnago Salus win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
81′We published Legnago Salus at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Legnago Salus win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Legnago Salus 3–1 FC Obermais
FTLegnago Salus 3–1 FC Obermais · Legnago Salus win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Legnago Salus are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Legnago Salus 60%, draw 22%, FC Obermais 18%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Legnago Salus v FC ObermaisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Legnago Salus win60%

Draw22%

FC Obermais win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

VenueMario Sandrini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Legnago Salus

FC Obermais

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · legnago salus winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Legnago Salus a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Legnago Salus v FC Obermais~~2.09 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Legnago Salus win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
FC Obermais win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Legnago Salus or draw	82%	–	–
Legnago Salus clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Obermais clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.3 4.0 2.5 1 8.3 10.2 5.0 2 9.2 9.5 5.1 3 6.3 6.6 3.5 4 3.4 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Legnago Salus down, FC Obermais across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Legnago Salus at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Obermais away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Legnago Salus, 1.07 for FC Obermais. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEG 2–1 FCO · FCO 1–5 LEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

LEGNAGO SALUS

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–0

FC OBERMAIS

WDLDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3