FC Obermais v Schio prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

FC Obermais 3–0 Schio FC OBERMAIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Obermais win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Obermais win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Obermais was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
1′KICK-OFF FC Obermais v Schio
2′Much as we predicted: FC Obermais was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' FC Obermais 1–0 Schio
21′A goal for FC Obermais on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–11
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 39% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
23′A goal for FC Obermais on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 39% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Obermais 2–0 Schio
40′37′ and it is 2–0: FC Obermais have scored. 2–0 · 93–6–1
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
42′37′ and it is 2–0: FC Obermais have scored. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′HALF-TIME FC Obermais 2–0 Schio
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Obermais win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
46′SECOND HALF FC Obermais 2–0 Schio
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Obermais 3–0 Schio
FTFULL TIME FC Obermais 3–0 Schio
FTFC Obermais 3–0 Schio · FC Obermais win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Obermais win38%

Draw30%

Schio win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Obermais

Schio

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc obermais winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make FC Obermais a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Obermais win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Schio win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
FC Obermais or draw	68%	–	–
FC Obermais clean sheet	33%	–	–
Schio clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.8 9.5 5.9 2.3 1 10.5 13.8 7.2 2.8 2 7.2 7.9 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Obermais down, Schio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Obermais at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Schio away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for FC Obermais, 1.13 for Schio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

FC OBERMAIS

LWDLDL2–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

SCHIO

LDDDLD0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3