FC Obermais v Brian Lignano prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC ObermaisDrawBrian Lignano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Brian Lignano 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brian Lignano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Obermais 34%, draw 26%, Brian Lignano 40%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on FC Obermais v Brian LignanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Obermais win34%

Draw26%

Brian Lignano win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Obermais

Brian Lignano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brian lignano winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market26%

Us40%

~~Market~~26%

We make Brian Lignano a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Obermais v Brian Lignano~~1.38 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~16 v 18

~~The market · Brian Lignano win~~26% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brian Lignano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Obermais win	34%	44%	−10
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Brian Lignano win	40%	26%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%	+10
Both teams to score	58%	50%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	79%	69%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	33%	27%	+6
FC Obermais or draw	60%	74%	−14
FC Obermais clean sheet	23%	–	–
Brian Lignano clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.6 7.6 6.3 3.2 1 6.9 12.2 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.8 5.8 3.0 3 2.5 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Obermais down, Brian Lignano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Obermais at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Brian Lignano away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for FC Obermais, 1.52 for Brian Lignano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRI 0–0 FCO · FCO 1–1 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept

FC OBERMAIS

DLDLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–3

BRIAN LIGNANO

LLWLLL1–2 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	8	+12	18
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
3	Clodiense	8	+3	16
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
6	Campodarsego	8	+2	13
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12
8	LME	8	−2	11
9	Mestre	8	0	10
10	Este	8	0	10
11	Conegliano	8	−4	10
12	Altavilla	8	+6	9
13	Triestina	8	−2	9
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9
15	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
17	Schio	8	−3	7
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3