Este v LME prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Este 1–0 LME ESTE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Este win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Este win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Este was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–26
1′KICK-OFF Este v LME
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Este win 36%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Este win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Este 0–0 LME
46′SECOND HALF Este 0–0 LME
48′We said Este at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–21
55′We said Este at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–19
65′We said Este at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Este win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
70′Este find the net on 69′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
70′We published Este at 44%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Este 1–0 LME
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Este win: 44% at kick-off, 86% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Este win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
77′We published Este at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Este win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Este at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Este 1–0 LME
FTEste 1–0 LME · Este win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Este are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Este 44%, draw 31%, LME 26%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Este v LMEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Este win44%

Draw31%

LME win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Este

LME

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	LME	7	−1	11
13	Este	7	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · este winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Este a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Este v LME~~1.27 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~13 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Este win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
LME win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Este or draw	74%	–	–
Este clean sheet	41%	–	–
LME clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.8 9.4 4.7 1 13.5 13.7 5.8 2 9.1 8.0 3.6 3 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Este down, LME across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Este at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). LME away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Este, 0.90 for LME. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept

ESTE

LLLDWL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

LME

DDLWLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3