Conegliano v Mestre prediction · Serie D - Girone C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Conegliano 2–1 Mestre DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.656

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 34%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Conegliano 34% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–33–33
4′Little has changed for our model: Conegliano 34% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–33–32
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Draw: 34% at kick-off, 45% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Conegliano win 28%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 57' Conegliano 1–0 Mestre
45′HALF-TIME Conegliano 1–0 Mestre
46′SECOND HALF Conegliano 1–0 Mestre
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Conegliano 1–1 Mestre
90′⚽ GOAL · 57' Conegliano 1–1 Mestre
90′⚽ GOAL · 67' Conegliano 1–1 Mestre
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Conegliano 2–1 Mestre
FTFULL TIME Conegliano 2–1 Mestre
FTConegliano 2–1 Mestre · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Conegliano win34%

Draw34%

Mestre win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Conegliano

Mestre

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawPublished 11 Oct 14:09

34% The market–

Us34%

We make the draw a 34% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Conegliano win	34%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Mestre win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Conegliano or draw	68%	–	–
Conegliano clean sheet	41%	–	–
Mestre clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%

0123450 17.2 13.1 6.4 1 13.7 14.2 5.9 2 7.0 6.2 2.8 3 2.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Conegliano down, Mestre across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Conegliano at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mestre away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Conegliano, 0.91 for Mestre. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CON 1–1 MES · MES 1–0 CON

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

CONEGLIANO

LDWWLL0–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

MESTRE

WDDWDD2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3