Clodiense v Calvi Noale prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Clodiense 3–2 Calvi Noale CLODIENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Clodiense win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Clodiense win at 51%.
11′Little has changed for our model: Clodiense 51% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–31–20
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Clodiense win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′Calvi Noale find the net on 42′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–61
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Clodiense 0–1 Calvi Noale
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Clodiense win: 51% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Calvi Noale win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Clodiense win 13%)
43′We said Clodiense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–27–61
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 12–27–61
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Clodiense win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
52′We said Clodiense at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Clodiense 3–1 Calvi Noale
FTFULL TIME Clodiense 3–2 Calvi Noale
FTClodiense 3–2 Calvi Noale · Clodiense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Clodiense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Clodiense 51%, draw 29%, Calvi Noale 20%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Clodiense v Calvi NoaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Clodiense win51%

Draw29%

Calvi Noale win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

VenueAldo e Dino Ballarin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Clodiense

Calvi Noale

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Clodiense	7	+2	13
12	Calvi Noale	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · clodiense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Clodiense a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Clodiense v Calvi Noale~~1.41 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Clodiense win	51%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Calvi Noale win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Clodiense or draw	80%	–	–
Clodiense clean sheet	46%	–	–
Calvi Noale clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 12.5 7.9 3.5 1 14.8 13.0 4.8 2 11.0 8.4 3.3 3 5.2 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Clodiense down, Calvi Noale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Clodiense at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Calvi Noale away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Clodiense, 0.78 for Calvi Noale. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CLO 3–0 CAL · CAL 0–1 CLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 12 Sept

CLODIENSE

DWWLLW1–1 · 1–0 · 5–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

CALVI NOALE

DDWLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
3	Sandona	7	+4	14
4	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
5	Clodiense	7	+2	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	7	−2	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3