Cjarlins Muzane v Virtus Bolzano prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cjarlins MuzaneDrawVirtus Bolzano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cjarlins Muzane 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cjarlins Muzane are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cjarlins Muzane 66%, draw 19%, Virtus Bolzano 15%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Cjarlins Muzane v Virtus BolzanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cjarlins Muzane win66%

Draw19%

Virtus Bolzano win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cjarlins Muzane

Virtus Bolzano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cjarlins muzane winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

66% The market68%

Us66%

~~Market~~68%

We make Cjarlins Muzane a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cjarlins Muzane v Virtus Bolzano~~2.40 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 9~~2 v 14

~~The market · Cjarlins Muzane win~~68% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cjarlins Muzane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cjarlins Muzane win	66%	68%	−2
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Virtus Bolzano win	15%	11%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	65%	57%	+8
Both teams to score	58%	47%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	44%	37%	+7
Cjarlins Muzane or draw	85%	89%	−4
Cjarlins Muzane clean sheet	36%	–	–
Virtus Bolzano clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 4.3 3.1 1 7.5 8.7 4.2 2 9.1 9.1 4.7 3 7.1 7.0 3.6 4 4.3 4.3 2.2 5 2.2 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Cjarlins Muzane down, Virtus Bolzano across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cjarlins Muzane at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Virtus Bolzano away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Cjarlins Muzane, 1.03 for Virtus Bolzano. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CJA 1–1 VIR · VIR 0–3 CJA · CJA 1–0 VIR · VIR 4–2 CJA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept

CJARLINS MUZANE

LWWWLW0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–0

VIRTUS BOLZANO

LWLLLW0–4 · 2–1 · 0–7 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	8	+12	18
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
3	Clodiense	8	+3	16
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
6	Campodarsego	8	+2	13
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12
8	LME	8	−2	11
9	Mestre	8	0	10
10	Este	8	0	10
11	Conegliano	8	−4	10
12	Altavilla	8	+6	9
13	Triestina	8	−2	9
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9
15	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
17	Schio	8	−3	7
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3