Campodarsego v Virtus Bolzano prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano CAMPODARSEGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Campodarsego win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Campodarsego win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Campodarsego v Virtus Bolzano
2′Little has changed for our model: Campodarsego 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–14
4′Little has changed for our model: Campodarsego 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–15
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Campodarsego 1–1 Virtus Bolzano
38′15′ and it is 1–1: Campodarsego have scored. 1–1 · 54–31–15
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 58% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Campodarsego win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 51' Campodarsego 2–1 Virtus Bolzano
45′HALF-TIME Campodarsego 2–1 Virtus Bolzano
46′SECOND HALF Campodarsego 2–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 75' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 88' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 13' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 15' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
90′⚽ GOAL · 51' Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
FTFULL TIME Campodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano
FTCampodarsego 4–1 Virtus Bolzano · Campodarsego win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Campodarsego win64%

Draw22%

Virtus Bolzano win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Campodarsego

Virtus Bolzano

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · campodarsego winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Campodarsego a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Campodarsego win	64%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Virtus Bolzano win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Campodarsego or draw	86%	–	–
Campodarsego clean sheet	43%	–	–
Virtus Bolzano clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 4.0 2.1 1 10.3 10.2 4.1 2 11.1 9.3 4.0 3 7.7 6.3 2.7 4 4.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Campodarsego down, Virtus Bolzano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Campodarsego at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Virtus Bolzano away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Campodarsego, 0.86 for Virtus Bolzano. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIR 1–1 CAM · CAM 0–0 VIR · VIR 2–2 CAM · CAM 1–1 VIR

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

CAMPODARSEGO

WLWWLD4–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

VIRTUS BOLZANO

LWLWLL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–7 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3