Calvi Noale v Sandona prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Calvi Noale 0–2 Sandona CALVI NOALE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Calvi Noale win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Calvi Noale win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Calvi Noale v Sandona
2′Little has changed for our model: Calvi Noale 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–31
4′Little has changed for our model: Calvi Noale 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–31
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Calvi Noale win 32%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Calvi Noale win 32%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Calvi Noale win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Calvi Noale win 32%)
FTFULL TIME Calvi Noale 0–2 Sandona
FTCalvi Noale 0–2 Sandona · Calvi Noale win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Calvi Noale win37%

Draw32%

Sandona win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Calvi Noale

Sandona

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calvi noale winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Calvi Noale a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calvi Noale win	37%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Sandona win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Calvi Noale or draw	69%	–	–
Calvi Noale clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sandona clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.8 11.0 5.9 1 12.6 14.2 6.4 2.2 2 7.6 7.3 3.6 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Calvi Noale down, Sandona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Calvi Noale at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sandona away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Calvi Noale, 0.98 for Sandona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

CALVI NOALE

LDDWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

SANDONA

WDWLDW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3