Brian Lignano v Altavilla prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Brian Lignano 0–2 Altavilla BRIAN LIGNANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brian Lignano win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brian Lignano win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brian Lignano 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Brian Lignano v Altavilla
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Brian Lignano win 34%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Brian Lignano win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–48–24
57′We said Brian Lignano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–49–23
63′We said Brian Lignano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
FTFULL TIME Brian Lignano 0–2 Altavilla
FTBrian Lignano 0–2 Altavilla · Brian Lignano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brian Lignano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brian Lignano 39%, draw 29%, Altavilla 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Brian Lignano v AltavillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brian Lignano win39%

Draw29%

Altavilla win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brian Lignano

Altavilla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brian lignano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Brian Lignano a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brian Lignano v Altavilla~~1.32 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~18 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brian Lignano win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Altavilla win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Brian Lignano or draw	68%	–	–
Brian Lignano clean sheet	32%	–	–
Altavilla clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.8 8.9 5.6 2.2 1 10.3 13.5 7.2 2.8 2 7.3 8.2 4.7 3 3.3 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brian Lignano down, Altavilla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brian Lignano at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Altavilla away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Brian Lignano, 1.15 for Altavilla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–1 BRI · BRI 0–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 13 Sept

BRIAN LIGNANO

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

ALTAVILLA

DLLWDL0–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 7–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	7	+12	17
2	Clodiense	8	+3	16
3	Cjarlins Muzane	7	+8	15
4	Sandona	7	+4	14
5	Campodarsego	7	+5	13
6	Bassano Virtus	7	+4	12
7	LME	7	−1	11
8	Mestre	7	+2	10
9	Legnago Salus	7	+1	10
10	Conegliano	7	−3	10
11	FC Obermais	7	−2	8
12	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
13	Este	7	−1	7
14	Altavilla	7	+4	6
15	Triestina	7	−3	6
16	Virtus Bolzano	7	−16	6
17	Schio	7	−6	4
18	Brian Lignano	7	−8	3