Bassano Virtus v Sandona prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bassano VirtusDrawSandona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bassano Virtus 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bassano Virtus are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bassano Virtus 40%, draw 34%, Sandona 26%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Bassano Virtus v SandonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bassano Virtus win40%

Draw34%

Sandona win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 9

VenueStadio Rino Mercante

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bassano Virtus

Sandona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bassano virtus winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bassano Virtus a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bassano Virtus v Sandona~~1.05 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bassano Virtus win	40%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Sandona win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Bassano Virtus or draw	74%	–	–
Bassano Virtus clean sheet	46%	–	–
Sandona clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.3%

0123450 17.3 11.6 4.9 1 15.8 13.7 5.0 2 8.8 6.7 2.6 3 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bassano Virtus down, Sandona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,682 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Bassano Virtus at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sandona away: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Bassano Virtus, 0.78 for Sandona. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C this season · since 16 Sept

BASSANO VIRTUS

DDWWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

SANDONA

WLDWWD2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Luparense	8	+12	18
2	Cjarlins Muzane	8	+10	18
3	Clodiense	8	+3	16
4	Sandona	8	+4	15
5	Legnago Salus	8	+3	13
6	Campodarsego	8	+2	13
7	Bassano Virtus	8	+3	12
8	LME	8	−2	11
9	Mestre	8	0	10
10	Este	8	0	10
11	Conegliano	8	−4	10
12	Altavilla	8	+6	9
13	Triestina	8	−2	9
14	Virtus Bolzano	8	−15	9
15	Calvi Noale	8	−3	8
16	FC Obermais	8	−4	8
17	Schio	8	−3	7
18	Brian Lignano	8	−10	3