Altavilla v Clodiense prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense CLODIENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Clodiense win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Clodiense win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Altavilla v Clodiense
2′Little has changed for our model: Clodiense 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–31–38
4′Little has changed for our model: Clodiense 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–31–38
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Clodiense win 31%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Clodiense win 31%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Clodiense win 31%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Clodiense win 31%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense
45′HALF-TIME Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense
46′SECOND HALF Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense
FTFULL TIME Altavilla 0–1 Clodiense
FTAltavilla 0–1 Clodiense · Clodiense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Altavilla win31%

Draw32%

Clodiense win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Altavilla

Clodiense

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · clodiense winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Clodiense a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altavilla win	31%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Clodiense win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Altavilla or draw	63%	–	–
Altavilla clean sheet	34%	–	–
Clodiense clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 14.0 12.7 7.5 2.8 1 11.2 14.2 7.2 2.7 2 6.0 6.4 3.5 3 2.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altavilla down, Clodiense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone C matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altavilla at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Clodiense away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Altavilla, 1.10 for Clodiense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CLO 1–1 ALT · ALT 0–1 CLO

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone C

ALTAVILLA

DDLLWD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 7–0 · 2–2

CLODIENSE

WDWWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 5–3 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cjarlins Muzane	6	+12	15
2	Luparense	6	+11	14
3	Sandona	6	+2	11
4	Mestre	6	+3	10
5	Campodarsego	6	+2	10
6	Clodiense	6	+1	10
7	Bassano Virtus	6	+3	9
8	Calvi Noale	6	0	8
9	LME	6	−2	8
10	Este	6	0	7
11	Legnago Salus	6	−3	7
12	Conegliano	6	−4	7
13	Altavilla	6	+5	6
14	Triestina	6	−2	6
15	Virtus Bolzano	6	−13	6
16	FC Obermais	6	−5	5
17	Schio	6	−3	4
18	Brian Lignano	6	−7	3