Virtus Verona v Tritium prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium VIRTUS VERONA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Virtus Verona win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus Verona win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Virtus Verona 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
1′KICK-OFF Virtus Verona v Tritium
32′Virtus Verona find the net on 24′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′We said Virtus Verona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 24' Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Virtus Verona win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium
46′SECOND HALF Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium
57′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
80′We said Virtus Verona at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Virtus Verona 2–0 Tritium
FTVirtus Verona 2–0 Tritium · Virtus Verona win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Virtus Verona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Virtus Verona 52%, draw 26%, Tritium 22%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Virtus Verona v TritiumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Virtus Verona win52%

Draw26%

Tritium win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

VenueMario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Virtus Verona

Tritium

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
18	Tritium	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus verona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Virtus Verona a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Virtus Verona v Tritium~~1.61 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~11 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Virtus Verona win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Tritium win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Virtus Verona or draw	78%	–	–
Virtus Verona clean sheet	40%	–	–
Tritium clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 7.2 3.5 1 12.4 11.9 5.4 2 10.0 9.0 4.2 3 5.4 4.9 2.3 4 2.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus Verona down, Tritium across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,817 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Virtus Verona at home: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Tritium away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Virtus Verona, 0.93 for Tritium. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

VIRTUS VERONA

WDWLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

TRITIUM

LDLDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	7	+8	18
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
3	Leon	7	+5	12
4	Caldiero Terme	7	+3	12
5	Piacenza	6	+6	11
6	Villa Valle	7	+3	10
7	Pro Palazzolo	7	−3	10
8	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	7	+1	9
9	Milan II	5	0	9
10	Brusaporto	7	−2	9
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7
15	Pavonese	6	−4	7
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	7	−9	2