Virtus Verona v Chievo prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Virtus Verona 1–1 Chievo CHIEVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Chievo win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chievo win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chievo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
42′A goal for Chievo on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
45′A goal for Chievo on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′We published Chievo at 42%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
49′We published Chievo at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
69′We published Chievo at 42%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Chievo win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Chievo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
90′87′ and it is 1–1: Virtus Verona have scored. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 87' Virtus Verona 1–1 Chievo
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Chievo win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Chievo win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Chievo win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Chievo win 0%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Chievo win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
FTFULL TIME Virtus Verona 1–1 Chievo
FTVirtus Verona 1–1 Chievo · Chievo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Virtus Verona win31%

Draw27%

Chievo win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueMario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Virtus Verona

Chievo

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chievo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Chievo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Virtus Verona win	31%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Chievo win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Virtus Verona or draw	58%	–	–
Virtus Verona clean sheet	25%	–	–
Chievo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.4 10.3 7.6 3.6 1 8.4 12.7 8.6 4.1 2 5.2 7.1 5.0 2.4 3 2.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus Verona down, Chievo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Virtus Verona at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Chievo away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Virtus Verona, 1.42 for Chievo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

VIRTUS VERONA

DWDWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

CHIEVO

WWWWLW1–0 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2