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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Serie D - Girone B › Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Leon

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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Leon

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1–2Full time
Leon

Serie D - Girone B · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–2 Leon VIRTUS CISERANO BERGAMO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.649

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Leon
  4. 24′A goal for Leon on 23′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–34–32
  5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–1 Leon
  6. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win 32%)
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–1 Leon
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–1 Leon
  9. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  10. 57′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
  11. 59′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
  12. 62′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 23–55–22
  13. 69′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–18
  14. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  15. 76′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
  16. 82′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
  17. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  18. 89′We said Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–91–4
  19. FTFULL TIME Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–2 Leon
  20. FTVirtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–2 Leon · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Virtus Ciserano Bergamo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 37%, draw 29%, Leon 34%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v LeonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win37%
Draw29%
Leon win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Leon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Leon7+512
8Virtus Ciserano Bergamo7+19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus ciserano bergamo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market–
Us37%

We make Virtus Ciserano Bergamo a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo v Leon1.20 – 1.15
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 9 v 128 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win37%––
Draw29%––
Leon win34%––
Over 2.5 goals42%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw66%––
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo clean sheet32%––
Leon clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 10.3 10.6 6.3 2.5 1 11.0 13.3 7.4 2.9 2 6.9 7.7 4.4 3 2.8 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus Ciserano Bergamo down, Leon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsVIR 1–0 LEO · LEO 1–1 VIR · LEO 1–1 VIR · VIR 1–0 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

VIRTUS CISERANO BERGAMO

DDLDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4

LEON

DDDLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nibbiano & Valtidone7+818
2Chievo7+816
3Leon7+512
4Caldiero Terme7+312
5Piacenza6+611
6Villa Valle7+310
7Pro Palazzolo7−310
8Virtus Ciserano Bergamo7+19
9Milan II509
10Brusaporto7−29
11Virtus Verona7−29
12Real Calepina7−18
13Scanzorosciate7−28
14Club Milano7−27
15Pavonese6−47
16Rovato Vertovese7−36
17Fiorenzuola7−63
18Tritium7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.