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Model 1.2

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Villa Valle v Pro Palazzolo

Villa Valle
1–0Full time
Pro Palazzolo

Serie D - Girone B · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Villa Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo PRO PALAZZOLO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Pro Palazzolo win42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pro Palazzolo win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Pro Palazzolo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Villa Valle v Pro Palazzolo
  4. 23′A goal for Villa Valle on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–15
  5. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Villa Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Pro Palazzolo win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Villa Valle win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Pro Palazzolo win 15%)
  8. 24′We said Pro Palazzolo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15
  9. 27′We said Pro Palazzolo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 63–24–14
  11. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Pro Palazzolo win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Villa Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo
  13. 46′We said Pro Palazzolo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Villa Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo
  15. 65′We said Pro Palazzolo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  16. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Pro Palazzolo win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  17. FTFULL TIME Villa Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo
  18. FTVilla Valle 1–0 Pro Palazzolo · Pro Palazzolo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pro Palazzolo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa Valle 30%, draw 28%, Pro Palazzolo 42%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Villa Valle v Pro PalazzoloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villa Valle win30%
Draw28%
Pro Palazzolo win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa Valle

Pro Palazzolo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Villa Valle7+310
7Pro Palazzolo7−310

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pro palazzolo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market–
Us42%

We make Pro Palazzolo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Villa Valle v Pro Palazzolo1.12 – 1.36
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 10 v 106 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Villa Valle win30%––
Draw28%––
Pro Palazzolo win42%––
Over 2.5 goals45%––
Both teams to score50%––
Over 1.5 goals71%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
Villa Valle or draw58%––
Villa Valle clean sheet26%––
Pro Palazzolo clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 9.1 11.0 7.7 3.6 1 9.0 12.9 8.4 3.9 2 5.3 7.0 4.7 2.1 3 2.0 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Valle down, Pro Palazzolo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsVIL 1–3 PRO · PRO 0–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

VILLA VALLE

DDLWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

PRO PALAZZOLO

WWLDWL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nibbiano & Valtidone7+818
2Chievo7+816
3Leon7+512
4Caldiero Terme7+312
5Piacenza6+611
6Villa Valle7+310
7Pro Palazzolo7−310
8Virtus Ciserano Bergamo7+19
9Milan II509
10Brusaporto7−29
11Virtus Verona7−29
12Real Calepina7−18
13Scanzorosciate7−28
14Club Milano7−27
15Pavonese6−47
16Rovato Vertovese7−36
17Fiorenzuola7−63
18Tritium7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.