Tritium v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TritiumDrawVirtus Ciserano Bergamo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tritium 26%, draw 28%, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Tritium v Virtus Ciserano BergamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tritium win26%

Draw28%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win46%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tritium

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	8	0	9
18	Tritium	8	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus ciserano bergamo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market38%

Us46%

~~Market~~38%

We make Virtus Ciserano Bergamo a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tritium v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo~~0.98 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~18 v 13

~~The market · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win~~38% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tritium win	26%	33%	−7
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win	46%	38%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Tritium or draw	54%	62%	−8
Tritium clean sheet	25%	–	–
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.9 12.5 9.0 4.3 1 8.6 12.7 8.6 4.1 2 4.5 6.1 4.2 2.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tritium down, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,828 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tritium at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Tritium, 1.42 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRI 0–2 VIR · VIR 3–0 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

TRITIUM

DLDLLL1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–2

VIRTUS CISERANO BERGAMO

DLDWLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	8	+9	21
2	Chievo	8	+7	16
3	Leon	8	+6	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	+3	15
5	Piacenza	7	+8	14
6	Villa Valle	9	+4	14
7	Milan II	6	+1	12
8	Virtus Verona	8	0	12
9	Real Calepina	8	0	11
10	Scanzorosciate	9	−2	10
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10
12	Pro Palazzolo	8	−4	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	8	0	9
14	Brusaporto	9	−5	9
15	Rovato Vertovese	8	−3	7
16	Club Milano	8	−3	7
17	Fiorenzuola	8	−7	3
18	Tritium	8	−11	2