Scanzorosciate v Brusaporto prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Scanzorosciate 1–0 Brusaporto SCANZOROSCIATE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Scanzorosciate win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scanzorosciate win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Scanzorosciate v Brusaporto
2′Much as we predicted: Scanzorosciate was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–31
4′Much as we predicted: Scanzorosciate was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–30
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Scanzorosciate win 34%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Scanzorosciate win 34%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Scanzorosciate win 34%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Scanzorosciate win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Scanzorosciate 0–0 Brusaporto
46′SECOND HALF Scanzorosciate 0–0 Brusaporto
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Scanzorosciate 1–0 Brusaporto
FTFULL TIME Scanzorosciate 1–0 Brusaporto
FTScanzorosciate 1–0 Brusaporto · Scanzorosciate win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Scanzorosciate win40%

Draw29%

Brusaporto win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Scanzorosciate

Brusaporto

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scanzorosciate winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Scanzorosciate a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Scanzorosciate win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Brusaporto win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Scanzorosciate or draw	70%	–	–
Scanzorosciate clean sheet	36%	–	–
Brusaporto clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.2 10.3 5.5 1 12.3 13.4 6.7 2.3 2 7.9 8.0 4.1 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Scanzorosciate down, Brusaporto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Scanzorosciate at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Brusaporto away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Scanzorosciate, 1.03 for Brusaporto. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRU 0–2 SCA · SCA 0–3 BRU

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

SCANZOROSCIATE

WDLLDL3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4

BRUSAPORTO

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2