Rovato Vertovese v Scanzorosciate prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Rovato Vertovese 1–1 Scanzorosciate SCANZOROSCIATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Scanzorosciate win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Scanzorosciate win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Scanzorosciate 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Rovato Vertovese v Scanzorosciate
22′Scanzorosciate find the net on 21′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
22′We said Scanzorosciate at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 12–21–68
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Rovato Vertovese 0–1 Scanzorosciate
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Scanzorosciate win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
34′We said Scanzorosciate at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Rovato Vertovese 0–1 Scanzorosciate
46′SECOND HALF Rovato Vertovese 0–1 Scanzorosciate
54′We said Scanzorosciate at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Scanzorosciate win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
66′We said Scanzorosciate at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
73′A goal for Rovato Vertovese on 73′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–66–17
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rovato Vertovese 1–1 Scanzorosciate
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Scanzorosciate win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Scanzorosciate win 17%)
74′We said Scanzorosciate at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 16–68–17
77′We said Scanzorosciate at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–72–14
83′We said Scanzorosciate at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Scanzorosciate win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Scanzorosciate at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Rovato Vertovese 1–1 Scanzorosciate
FTRovato Vertovese 1–1 Scanzorosciate · Scanzorosciate win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Scanzorosciate just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rovato Vertovese 34%, draw 28%, Scanzorosciate 38%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rovato Vertovese v ScanzorosciateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rovato Vertovese win34%

Draw28%

Scanzorosciate win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rovato Vertovese

Scanzorosciate

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scanzorosciate winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Scanzorosciate a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rovato Vertovese v Scanzorosciate~~1.20 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rovato Vertovese win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Scanzorosciate win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Rovato Vertovese or draw	62%	–	–
Rovato Vertovese clean sheet	29%	–	–
Scanzorosciate clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.3 10.4 6.8 2.9 1 9.8 13.0 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rovato Vertovese down, Scanzorosciate across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,817 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Rovato Vertovese at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Scanzorosciate away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Rovato Vertovese, 1.27 for Scanzorosciate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

ROVATO VERTOVESE

LDDDLW3–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

SCANZOROSCIATE

DLLDLW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	7	+8	18
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
3	Leon	7	+5	12
4	Caldiero Terme	7	+3	12
5	Piacenza	6	+6	11
6	Villa Valle	7	+3	10
7	Pro Palazzolo	7	−3	10
8	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	7	+1	9
9	Milan II	5	0	9
10	Brusaporto	7	−2	9
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7
15	Pavonese	6	−4	7
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	7	−9	2