Real Calepina v Villa Valle prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Real Calepina 0–3 Villa Valle REAL CALEPINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Calepina win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.732

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Calepina win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Calepina v Villa Valle
2′Little has changed for our model: Real Calepina 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
4′Little has changed for our model: Real Calepina 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
45′HALF-TIME Real Calepina 0–0 Villa Valle
46′SECOND HALF Real Calepina 0–0 Villa Valle
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Real Calepina 0–1 Villa Valle
90′⚽ GOAL · 66' Real Calepina 0–1 Villa Valle
90′⚽ GOAL · 100' Real Calepina 0–3 Villa Valle
90′⚽ GOAL · 84' Real Calepina 0–3 Villa Valle
FTFULL TIME Real Calepina 0–3 Villa Valle
FTReal Calepina 0–3 Villa Valle · Real Calepina win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Calepina win42%

Draw27%

Villa Valle win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Calepina

Villa Valle

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real calepina winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Real Calepina a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Calepina win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Villa Valle win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Real Calepina or draw	69%	–	–
Real Calepina clean sheet	32%	–	–
Villa Valle clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 8.7 5.2 2.0 1 10.6 12.9 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.5 4.9 3 3.6 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Calepina down, Villa Valle across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.62 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Calepina at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Villa Valle away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Real Calepina, 1.14 for Villa Valle. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 2–2 REA · REA 1–3 VIL · VIL 2–0 REA · REA 1–0 VIL

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

REAL CALEPINA

WDDLLW5–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0

VILLA VALLE

DDDLWD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2