Real Calepina v Pavonese prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real CalepinaDrawPavonese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Calepina 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Calepina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Calepina 42%, draw 27%, Pavonese 31%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Real Calepina v PavoneseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Calepina win42%

Draw27%

Pavonese win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Calepina

Pavonese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Real Calepina	8	0	11
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real calepina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Real Calepina a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Calepina v Pavonese~~1.40 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Calepina win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pavonese win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Real Calepina or draw	69%	–	–
Real Calepina clean sheet	32%	–	–
Pavonese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.4 8.6 5.2 2.1 1 10.4 12.7 7.1 2.8 2 7.5 8.5 4.9 3 3.6 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Calepina down, Pavonese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,828 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Real Calepina at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pavonese away: 0.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Real Calepina, 1.17 for Pavonese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

REAL CALEPINA

DLLWLW2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

PAVONESE

LDWWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	8	+9	21
2	Chievo	8	+7	16
3	Leon	8	+6	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	+3	15
5	Piacenza	7	+8	14
6	Villa Valle	9	+4	14
7	Milan II	6	+1	12
8	Virtus Verona	8	0	12
9	Real Calepina	8	0	11
10	Scanzorosciate	9	−2	10
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10
12	Pro Palazzolo	8	−4	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	8	0	9
14	Brusaporto	9	−5	9
15	Rovato Vertovese	8	−3	7
16	Club Milano	8	−3	7
17	Fiorenzuola	8	−7	3
18	Tritium	8	−11	2