Pro Palazzolo v Caldiero Terme prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Pro Palazzolo 1–3 Caldiero Terme PRO PALAZZOLO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pro Palazzolo win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pro Palazzolo win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Pro Palazzolo v Caldiero Terme
2′Much as we predicted: Pro Palazzolo was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–28
4′Much as we predicted: Pro Palazzolo was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Pro Palazzolo 1–0 Caldiero Terme
38′Pro Palazzolo find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Pro Palazzolo 1–1 Caldiero Terme
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pro Palazzolo 1–2 Caldiero Terme
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Pro Palazzolo win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Pro Palazzolo 1–2 Caldiero Terme
46′SECOND HALF Pro Palazzolo 1–2 Caldiero Terme
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Pro Palazzolo 1–3 Caldiero Terme
FTFULL TIME Pro Palazzolo 1–3 Caldiero Terme
FTPro Palazzolo 1–3 Caldiero Terme · Pro Palazzolo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pro Palazzolo win45%

Draw27%

Caldiero Terme win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pro Palazzolo

Caldiero Terme

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pro palazzolo winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Pro Palazzolo a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pro Palazzolo win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Caldiero Terme win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Pro Palazzolo or draw	72%	–	–
Pro Palazzolo clean sheet	34%	–	–
Caldiero Terme clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 8.1 4.7 1 11.0 12.6 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 8.8 4.8 3 4.1 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pro Palazzolo down, Caldiero Terme across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pro Palazzolo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Caldiero Terme away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Pro Palazzolo, 1.09 for Caldiero Terme. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 1–1 CAL · CAL 0–0 PRO

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

PRO PALAZZOLO

LWWLDW1–5 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

CALDIERO TERME

LDDWDW3–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2