Pavonese v Milan II prediction · Serie D - Girone B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PavoneseDrawMilan II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Milan II 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Milan II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pavonese 28%, draw 25%, Milan II 47%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Pavonese v Milan IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Pavonese win28%

Draw25%

Milan II win47%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pavonese

Milan II

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Milan II	6	+1	12
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · milan ii winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Milan II a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pavonese v Milan II~~1.23 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pavonese win	28%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Milan II win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Pavonese or draw	53%	–	–
Pavonese clean sheet	20%	–	–
Milan II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 9.0 7.6 4.2 1 6.7 11.5 9.1 5.0 2.1 2 4.3 6.8 5.5 3.1 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pavonese down, Milan II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Pavonese at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Milan II away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Pavonese, 1.65 for Milan II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept

PAVONESE

LDWWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

MILAN II

WLWWLW4–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	8	+9	21
2	Chievo	8	+7	16
3	Leon	8	+6	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	+3	15
5	Piacenza	7	+8	14
6	Villa Valle	9	+4	14
7	Milan II	6	+1	12
8	Virtus Verona	8	0	12
9	Real Calepina	8	0	11
10	Scanzorosciate	9	−2	10
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10
12	Pro Palazzolo	8	−4	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	8	0	9
14	Brusaporto	9	−5	9
15	Rovato Vertovese	8	−3	7
16	Club Milano	8	−3	7
17	Fiorenzuola	8	−7	3
18	Tritium	8	−11	2