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Nibbiano & Valtidone v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Nibbiano & Valtidone

4–1Full time

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Serie D - Girone B · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Nibbiano & Valtidone 4–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo NIBBIANO & VALTIDONE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nibbiano & Valtidone win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nibbiano & Valtidone win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Nibbiano & Valtidone v Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
2′Little has changed for our model: Nibbiano & Valtidone 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
4′Little has changed for our model: Nibbiano & Valtidone 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–28
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Nibbiano & Valtidone 1–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nibbiano & Valtidone 2–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
23′Nibbiano & Valtidone find the net on 17′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
27′Nibbiano & Valtidone find the net on 17′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 42% now
38′We said Nibbiano & Valtidone at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Nibbiano & Valtidone 2–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nibbiano & Valtidone win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Nibbiano & Valtidone 2–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Nibbiano & Valtidone 2–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Nibbiano & Valtidone 3–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Nibbiano & Valtidone 4–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FTFULL TIME Nibbiano & Valtidone 4–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FTNibbiano & Valtidone 4–1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · Nibbiano & Valtidone win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nibbiano & Valtidone win42%

Draw31%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nibbiano & Valtidone

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nibbiano & valtidone winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Nibbiano & Valtidone a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nibbiano & Valtidone win	42%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Nibbiano & Valtidone or draw	73%	–	–
Nibbiano & Valtidone clean sheet	41%	–	–
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 13.6 10.9 5.1 1 14.4 13.4 5.8 2 8.7 7.5 3.4 3 3.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nibbiano & Valtidone down, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nibbiano & Valtidone at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Nibbiano & Valtidone, 0.89 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

NIBBIANO & VALTIDONE

WWWWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

VIRTUS CISERANO BERGAMO

WDDLDW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2