Milan II v Rovato Vertovese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Milan II 1–2 Rovato Vertovese MILAN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Milan II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.038

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Milan II win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Milan II v Rovato Vertovese
2′Much as we predicted: Milan II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
3′Much as we predicted: Milan II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Milan II 0–1 Rovato Vertovese
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Milan II 1–1 Rovato Vertovese
22′8′ and it is 1–1: Milan II have scored. 1–1 · 55–25–20
24′8′ and it is 1–1: Milan II have scored. 1–1 · 54–26–20
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Milan II win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Milan II win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Milan II win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Milan II win: 59% at kick-off, 54% now
45′HALF-TIME Milan II 1–1 Rovato Vertovese
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Milan II win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
46′SECOND HALF Milan II 1–1 Rovato Vertovese
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Milan II 1–2 Rovato Vertovese
FTFULL TIME Milan II 1–2 Rovato Vertovese
FTMilan II 1–2 Rovato Vertovese · Milan II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Milan II win59%

Draw21%

Rovato Vertovese win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Felice Chinetti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Milan II

Rovato Vertovese

21Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · milan ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Milan II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milan II win	59%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Rovato Vertovese win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Milan II or draw	80%	–	–
Milan II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Rovato Vertovese clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.6 4.3 2.6 1 8.1 9.6 5.2 2.0 2 8.7 9.5 5.3 2.1 3 6.1 6.6 3.7 4 3.2 3.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milan II down, Rovato Vertovese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Milan II at home: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rovato Vertovese away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Milan II, 1.13 for Rovato Vertovese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

MILAN II

WDWLWW10–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

ROVATO VERTOVESE

LLDDDL0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2