Leon v Pavonese prediction · Serie D - Girone B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Leon 3–0 Pavonese LEON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leon win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leon win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Leon was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
4′Much as we predicted: Leon was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
23′A goal for Leon on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
27′A goal for Leon on 23′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 39–33–28
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Leon win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Leon 1–0 Pavonese
45′HALF-TIME Leon 1–0 Pavonese
46′SECOND HALF Leon 1–0 Pavonese
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Leon 2–0 Pavonese
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Leon 3–0 Pavonese
FTFULL TIME Leon 3–0 Pavonese
FTLeon 3–0 Pavonese · Leon win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Leon win43%

Draw27%

Pavonese win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leon

Pavonese

7Days since last match14

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Leon	6	+2	9
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

He played for Norwich City and Coventry City, then started taking punches for a livingFootball League World · 1 day ago · Norwich, Coventry, Leon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leon winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Leon a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leon win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pavonese win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Leon or draw	70%	–	–
Leon clean sheet	33%	–	–
Pavonese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 8.6 5.0 1 10.9 12.7 6.8 2.6 2 7.9 8.5 4.7 3 3.8 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leon down, Pavonese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,809 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Leon at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pavonese away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Leon, 1.12 for Pavonese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

LEON

WDDDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

PAVONESE

LLDWW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	6	+6	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	6	−8	2