Leon v Chievo prediction · Serie D - Girone B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeonDrawChievo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Leon 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Leon just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Leon 37%, draw 26%, Chievo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Leon v ChievoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Leon win37%

Draw26%

Chievo win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leon

Chievo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chievo	8	+7	16
3	Leon	8	+6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leon winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make Leon a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leon v Chievo~~1.39 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 16~~3 v 2

~~The market · Leon win~~29% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leon win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Chievo win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	30%	0
Leon or draw	64%	58%	+6
Leon clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chievo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.0 8.4 5.9 2.7 1 8.6 12.2 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.2 5.5 2.5 3 2.9 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leon down, Chievo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,826 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leon at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chievo away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Leon, 1.37 for Chievo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEO 2–2 CHI · CHI 0–2 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

LEON

DDLWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

CHIEVO

WWLWDL2–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	8	+9	21
2	Chievo	8	+7	16
3	Leon	8	+6	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	+3	15
5	Piacenza	7	+8	14
6	Villa Valle	9	+4	14
7	Milan II	6	+1	12
8	Virtus Verona	8	0	12
9	Real Calepina	8	0	11
10	Scanzorosciate	9	−2	10
11	Pavonese	7	−3	10
12	Pro Palazzolo	8	−4	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	8	0	9
14	Brusaporto	9	−5	9
15	Rovato Vertovese	8	−3	7
16	Club Milano	8	−3	7
17	Fiorenzuola	8	−7	3
18	Tritium	8	−11	2