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Fiorenzuola v Piacenza

Fiorenzuola

0–0Full time

Piacenza

Serie D - Girone B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio comunale

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Fiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza PIACENZA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Piacenza win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Piacenza win at 50%.
5′KICK-OFF Fiorenzuola v Piacenza
6′Little has changed for our model: Piacenza 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 23–27–50
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Piacenza win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Fiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza
49′SECOND HALF Fiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza
52′We said Piacenza at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 19–45–36
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Piacenza win 36%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Fiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza
FTFULL TIME Fiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza
FTFiorenzuola 0–0 Piacenza · Piacenza win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fiorenzuola win23%

Draw27%

Piacenza win50%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Stadio comunale

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · piacenza winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Piacenza a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fiorenzuola win	23%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Piacenza win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Fiorenzuola or draw	50%	–	–
Fiorenzuola clean sheet	23%	–	–
Piacenza clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.7 12.9 9.8 5.0 2.0 1 7.9 12.3 8.7 4.5 2 3.8 5.5 4.0 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fiorenzuola down, Piacenza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,808 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fiorenzuola at home: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Piacenza away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Fiorenzuola, 1.52 for Piacenza. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B

FIORENZUOLA

LLLLDD0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

PIACENZA

DWLDWW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chievo	6	+8	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	+5	15
3	Piacenza	5	+6	10
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	−1	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	+4	9
6	Leon	6	+2	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	+1	9
8	Milan II	4	+1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	−1	9
10	Real Calepina	6	+2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	−2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	0	7
13	Pavonese	5	−1	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	−3	5
15	Club Milano	6	−3	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	−4	3
17	Fiorenzuola	6	−6	2
18	Tritium	6	−8	2