Club Milano v Real Calepina prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Club Milano 1–2 Real Calepina CLUB MILANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Milano win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Milano win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club Milano 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Club Milano v Real Calepina
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Club Milano win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Club Milano 0–0 Real Calepina
46′SECOND HALF Club Milano 0–0 Real Calepina
48′A goal for Club Milano on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Club Milano 1–0 Real Calepina
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Club Milano win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Club Milano win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
49′We said Club Milano at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
49′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–20–6
50′We said Club Milano at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
58′Real Calepina score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–51–23
58′We said Club Milano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–51–23
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Club Milano 1–1 Real Calepina
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Club Milano win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Club Milano win 26%)
62′Real Calepina find the net on 62′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
62′We said Club Milano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Club Milano 1–2 Real Calepina
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Club Milano win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Real Calepina win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
63′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–19–76
FTFULL TIME Club Milano 1–2 Real Calepina
FTClub Milano 1–2 Real Calepina · Club Milano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Milano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Milano 39%, draw 29%, Real Calepina 32%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Club Milano v Real CalepinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Milano win39%

Draw29%

Real Calepina win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Milano

Real Calepina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club milano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Club Milano a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Milano v Real Calepina~~1.25 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Milano win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Real Calepina win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Club Milano or draw	68%	–	–
Club Milano clean sheet	33%	–	–
Real Calepina clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.2 10.1 5.9 2.2 1 11.3 13.3 7.1 2.7 2 7.3 8.0 4.4 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Milano down, Real Calepina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,817 Serie D - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Milano at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Calepina away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Club Milano, 1.12 for Real Calepina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–1 CLU · CLU 1–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB MILANO

WLLDLW2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

REAL CALEPINA

DDLLWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	7	+8	18
2	Chievo	7	+8	16
3	Leon	7	+5	12
4	Caldiero Terme	7	+3	12
5	Piacenza	6	+6	11
6	Villa Valle	7	+3	10
7	Pro Palazzolo	7	−3	10
8	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	7	+1	9
9	Milan II	5	0	9
10	Brusaporto	7	−2	9
11	Virtus Verona	7	−2	9
12	Real Calepina	7	−1	8
13	Scanzorosciate	7	−2	8
14	Club Milano	7	−2	7
15	Pavonese	6	−4	7
16	Rovato Vertovese	7	−3	6
17	Fiorenzuola	7	−6	3
18	Tritium	7	−9	2